Day 4

Yesterday, the markets were again volatile as predicted, the positions did not yield a return, however lot sizes were later added to existing positions which profited from the sharp pullback mid day.

Target
$500

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
31% (Yes), 58% (No), 11% (Not sure)

Latest:
Balance:
$46,396

Equity:
$46,396

Return
-7.2%

Current Performance
-9.9%

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
31% (Yes), 58% (No), 11% (Not sure)

Day 3

Yesterday, the markets were again volatile mainly due to the continuing spread of the swine flu. The markets are in a sideways motion which could mean heavy presents of a bull market, however on the other hand the quote "sell in May and go away !" comes to mind so trade equities especially with caution.

I will publish tomorrows position before 11.30 pm GMT today. Again trade with caution and losses are your actions and responsibility, neither do I expect any commission on any profits you may gain.


gbpusd,eurusd,usdcad,audusd,nzdusd,usdjpy,usdchf
short,short,long,short,short,short,long

Target:
$500

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
31% (Yes), 58% (No), 11% (Not sure)

Latest:

Balance:
$50,466

Equity:
$48,121

Return
+0.32%

Current Performance
-1.1%

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
31% (Yes), 58% (No), 11% (Not sure)

Day 2

Yesterday, the markets were quite unsettled surrounding an outbreak of swine flu virus said to have originated in Mexico. One would expect this to cause further volatility throughout the week, however the model held out and will reduce each pairs lot size by 0.10/pip.

Target:
$500

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
31% (Yes), 55% (No), 14% (Not sure)

Latest:
11.30am GMT
Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
33% (Yes), 56% (No), 11% (Not sure)

15:30pm GMT
Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
32% (Yes), 57% (No), 11% (Not sure)


Balance:
$49,700

Equity:
$48,982

Return
-0.30%

Current Performance
-1.9%

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
32% (Yes), 57% (No), 11% (Not sure)

Day 1

Target:
$300

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
31% (Yes), 55% (No), 14% (Not sure)

Latest:
11:58 am GMT, An independent judicator has been given full access to the trading account to monitor its performance. He is a well respected financial guru with over 40 years experience in the industry. This will provide more transparency to the challenge and further solidify the ongoing development of my forex technology.

15:56 pm GMT
Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
31% (Yes), 56% (No), 13% (Not sure)

Balance:
$50,007


Equity:
$48,410

Return
+0.01%

Current Performance
-0.6%

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
31% (Yes), 56% (No), 13% (Not sure)

Just Before The First Trade

Unfortunately I was unable to complete the MT4 automation part of the system so that will have to come later. However the challenge will begin within the next hour or so with regular updates throughout the day's to come. As usual I will publish at least one of my day trades per week.

24 Hours Left

I've been looking at MT4 (Meta Quote Trading Platform) programming language to provide automation for automatic closing of all positions once a particular pl loss or gain has been reached. Hopefully I will have this in place before the next challenge begins.

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
31% (Yes), 55% (No), 14% (Not sure)

Announcement of a $50,000 Forex Challenge Part 2

Hi Guys,

I have been working very hard ;) on establishing a technical system and improved risk management for my forex model. I am likely to begin the new challenge on the 27th of April '09.

If there are any questions you would like to ask or additional statistics that I can provide during the course of the challenge let me know via the blog or email

starttoday@jenario.com

Respectfully

Goldtip

Review

After 14 days of trading, the model had performed beyond expectations returning a profit of 22% within 10 days. However based on the strong criteria to return 100% in 30 days with low risk the model began to stress and failed to produce continuous results with a loss of 20% for a number of reasons as follows;


1. Market prices appear to be extremely unfounded perhaps due to the massive printing of money in the trillions of dollars, economic uncertainty and financial chaos.

2. A system needs to be developed to compliment the hedge recommended by the model which is current done on a per trader basis to suit their own risk criteria.

However in terms of the challenge all positions were opened together and closed together, profit taking opportunities were lost and stop losses could have been better prevented while unsupervised, so automation will be required.

3. Additional tools are required to measure price distortion perhaps against other basket of assets and on a more granular level i.e. intraday as forecasts are currently predicted on a daily basis.

On this basis the challenge will end here and a more detailed analysis will be published in the near future. New tools will be developed and tested to compliment the model at such time a new challenge will be waged.


* Of course this challenge was designed to put the model through extreme pressure it did well.

** I am currently developing a web system that will assist traders of all abilities which will be launched latest 30th of April 2009 at

www.jenario.com

Thank you for all your support.

Day 15 (Half-Time)

It's now half way through the challenge and I would first like to say thanks to those who have shown support and followed the blog. There is still hope.

Yesterday the model made a bit of head way with a turnover of a few thousand dollars however the equity is still in uncomfortable position. On saying that the model is finding it hard to keep up with the indecision created by the markets as the Dow moved sideways.


Target
$3000


Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
30% (Yes), 58% (No), 12% (Not sure)

Day 14

Yesterday trade caused further losses as a result of volatile US markets. The view of winning this challenge is dwindling away. However still vote and perhaps leave some words of encouragement.

Target
$5000

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
30% (Yes), 58% (No), 12% (Not sure)

Latest:

01:15 am GMT
Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
28% (Yes), 60% (No), 12% (Not sure)

Again the markets were volatile and proven to be under distress as the general consensus drives the market sideways and likely the reason why the model has been having trouble trying to trend the relative prices. This could be a result of massive amounts of money being printed and pumped into the system.

Balance:
$45,402


Equity:
$40,566


Current Performance
-29.2%

Day 13

Yesterday the model was still suffering from the Easter holiday, however some gains were made by additional hedging. Those that took up position would have made little profits and likely losses. However this is obviously having great impact on the bottom line and my moral. It's proving to be challenging but I remain confident.

* Note: for those that do not know I am trading 7 pairs simultaneously one day in advance using price only.

Target
$2000

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
30% (Yes), 58% (No), 12% (Not sure)

Latest:

The model still riddled with losses however there were a few profit taking moments. The model has its work cut out I almost feel I have to pull a rabbit out of a hat.

Balance:
$42,265


Equity:
$41,003


Current Performance
-32.7%

Day 12

My Positions for Tuesday.

gbpusd,eurusd,usdcad,audusd,nzdusd,usdjpy,usdchf
long,long,short,long,long,short,short

* Be sure to place no more than 2%-5% of your overall account balance spread across all assets in total.

** Allocation sizes are an approximation of the proportion of investment I will allocate to each asset.

*** I am not responsible for any losses you may incur should you place these positions yourself neither do I expect any commission on your gains.

Target:
$3000

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
29% (Yes), 59% (No), 12% (Not sure)

Update:

20:35 pm GMT
Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
30% (Yes), 58% (No), 12% (Not sure)

Latest:

60% of last weeks gains lost as markets return back from holiday indecisive. A lesson to learn perhaps skip long weekend holiday trading an obvious disconnect for the model.

Balance:
$55,053


Equity:
$48,974


Current Performance
-9.6%

Day 11

Another week of trading ahead volatility expected to continue. I will publish Tuesday's positions on Monday around 11 p.m GMT.

Balance:
$61,199


Equity:
$59,393


Current Performance
+6.0%


Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
28% (Yes), 59% (No), 13% (Not sure)

Latest:

60% of last weeks gains lost as markets return back from holiday indecisive. A lesson to learn perhaps skip long weekend holiday trading an obvious disconnect for the model.

Balance:
$50,974


Equity:
$50,974


Current Performance
-13.9%

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
30% (Yes), 57.5% (No), 12.5% (Not sure)

Week 2

This week has been another turbulent one however the model has been outstanding, not only has it managed risk its recovered its losses of the previous week and back on schedule. Current performance is beyond the expectation required of the challenge.

Balance:
$61,199


Equity:
$59,393


Current Performance
+6.0%


Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
26% (Yes), 60% (No), 14% (Not sure)

Day 10

Yesterday was the second most profitable day with a return of 10.6%.

Target
$2000

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
25% (Yes), 59% (No), 16% (Not sure)

Day 9

Yesterday was a very profitable day above initial investment and almost back on schedule.

My positions for Thursday are as follows and I will place them at 23.30 GMT:

Asset: gbpusd,eurusd,usdcad,audusd,nzdusd,usdjpy,usdchf
Approx. Allocation Sizes (%): 8,16,12,14,7,17,24
Positions: short,short,short,short,long,long,long

* Be sure to place no more than 2%-5% of your overall account balance spread across all assets in total.

** Allocation sizes are an approximation of the proportion of investment I will allocate to each asset.

*** I am not responsible for any losses you may incur should you place these positions yourself neither do I expect any commission on your gains.

Target
$2000

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
25% (Yes), 59% (No), 16% (Not sure)


Update:

Today has been outstanding not only did the model manage the risk of volatile markets, it also produced the second highest daily return since this challenge begun at 10.6% the highest being 18.6%. Furthermore the model is now outperforming its targets by 5.9%.

For those who placed my published positions would have made generous profits. When you visit the blog please vote as well, if you have already voted you can change it.

Balance:
$59,789


Equity:
$59,789

Current Performance
+5.9%


Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
25% (Yes), 59% (No), 16% (Not sure)

Day 8

Yesterday was a profitable day.

Target
$2000

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
25% (Yes), 59% (No), 16% (Not sure)

Latest:

Very volatile day with major swings, however it was very profitable and we hope it continues.

Balance:
$54,044


Equity:
$54,044

Current Performance
-2.3%


Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
25% (Yes), 59% (No), 16% (Not sure)

Day 7

Yesterday saw some profitable p/l however unexpected news swung the p/l into negative position.

Target:
$2,000

Latest:

11:43 am GMT
Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
26% (Yes), 60% (No), 14% (Not sure)

22:20 GMT
Another volatile day however its been profitable.

Balance:
$49,056


Equity:
$45,550

Current Performance
-16.1%


Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
25% (Yes), 59% (No), 16% (Not sure)

Day 6

My positions for Monday are as follows and I will place them at 23.15 GMT:

Asset: gbpusd,eurusd,usdcad,audusd,nzdusd,usdjpy,usdchf
Approx. Allocation Sizes (%): 11,14,13,10,10,15,15
Positions: long,short,short,long,long,long,long

* Be sure to place no more than 2%-5% of your overall account balance spread across all assets in total.

** Allocation sizes are an approximation of the proportion of investment I will allocate to each asset.

*** I am not responsible for any losses you may incur should you place these positions yourself neither do I expect any commission on your gains.

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
25% (Yes), 59% (No), 16% (Not sure)

Target:
$2,000


Latest:
Balance:
$43,025


Equity:
$43,025

Current Performance
-19.1%


Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
25% (Yes), 59% (No), 16% (Not sure)

Week 1

Balance:
$44,159


Equity:
$ 44,159

Current Performance
-16.1%

Target P/L
$500

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
25% (Yes), 59% (No), 16% (Not sure)

Day 5

As a result of roll-over positions being closed losses were incurred.

Latest:
Hedging yesterday was not that great, will not be rolling-over any positions from here on in.

Balance:
$47,004

Equity:
$41,640

Current Performance
-9.9%

Target P/L
$2000

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
27.5% (Yes), 58.6% (No), 13.7% (Not sure)

Update:
10.28 GMT. The markets are extremely volatile as the G-20 meet in what is being dubbed the New World Order.

17.43 GMT. This week has been a volatile week as predicted and part of a sideway price channel on most of the major currencies which is likely to continue.

The model has been quite disturbed by the uncertainty of the market due perhaps to the G-20 meeting in London, UK but has held out quite nicely considering its managing 7 highly volatile pairs. However there was quite a bit of extra hedging going on to try and manage extensive risk due to rolling over positions.

The $50,000 has diminished to $45,441 and likely to finish lower by the end of the day.

The performance in line w/ the 30 day expectation is also lower at around -13.7%, so the model has its work cut out.

Trades will be published on Sunday around 11 pm GMT for Monday session, to which I am not responsible for any losses that you may incur, however I would suggest you place them together around 12.30 a.m GMT.

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
27% (Yes), 60% (No), 13% (Not sure)

Day 4

Although the model produced profitable positions yesterday there was no profit taking the positions will roll-over with caution.

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
26.9% (Yes), 57.6% (No), 15.3% (Not sure)


Latest:

As I have been rolling over my positions I am having to hedge some of those positions further to wind-down negative p/l.

Balance:
$49,924

Equity:
$47,001

Current Performance
-9.6%

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
26.9% (Yes), 57.6% (No), 15.3% (Not sure)

Update:
Losses were incurred.

Note: The performance can be in better shape, however I am limiting my positions to daily recommendations provided by the system as much as possible, rather than intraday intervention; however intraday intervention may occur occasionally.